A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
