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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But the current race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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